Monthly Reports

2024: from paradise to hell, anything is possible

September 2023
The economic situation continues to deteriorate, and it is now clear that whoever wins the general elections will have a colossal challenge in December. He or she will have to deal with an extremely fragile situation including a high and probably rising rate of inflation, the need to devalue to reduce the FX spread,...

Argentina Averted the Chasm with the IMF Agreement, Though Fragility Is Still the Name of the Game

July 2023
The economic discussions have been dominated by the day-to-day developments in the negotiations between Argentina and the IMF. The other key piece of analysis is on the impact that the primaries (the PASO) might have on key variables such as the parallel exchange rate, inflation, the country risk and on overall fina...

What has changed with the announcement of the presidential candidates?

June 2023
We now know the candidates that will compete in the primaries (the paso) in August, the first big step in the electoral race. The Peronists, after some internal discussions and an indication that the kirchnerist Wado de Pedro would lead the ticket, have changed their mind, and decided to go with Finance Minister ...

The Lack of International Reserves is Reaching a Critical Point

May 2023
The macroeconomic problems remain the same. Policy dilemmas have not changed, but the situation is rapidly deteriorating, and the outcomes remain uncertain. The government’s unwillingness to tackle the critical policy problems, perhaps hoping that the bleeding of reserves would miraculously come to an end or that in...

New Challenges on the Exchange Rate and Inflation Fronts

April 2023
The macroeconomic situation is deteriorating rapidly in Argentina. There is little chance to imagine that it can improve on the way to the elections.  The pressing problem is the lack of reserves, which is a direct consequence of a grossly overvalued currency and the inability to control the spread between the ...