Monthly

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

Abril 2020

After two weeks of gradually ramping up social distancing measures, on March 19th President Fernández announced a nationwide mandatory quarantine. Although the quarantine ends on March 31st (coincidentially the set deadline for the debt restructuration) the evidence from Asia and Europe suggests it may be necessary ...

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

Febrero 2020

The debt saga started with the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA), which faced the maturity of the BP21 (NY law) for USD 250 million at the end of Jan-20. The province tried to defer the payment from January to May. Despite sweetening the original offer and extending the deadline to accept the deferral several times, PB...

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

Enero 2020

The initial steps of the Fernandez administration have sent positive signals to the financial markets, as the increases in taxes and the expected reductions in social security expenditures show that the government has the willingness to pay, while the fact that the Treasury has continued to service the debt in spite...

Economic perspectives for the summertime

Diciembre 2019

As Alberto Fernandez became the new President, new questions arise about whether he will be in control, about how much will Cristina’s influence in the new administration and about what types of policies he will implement during his tenure. So far there are mixed signals; as one the hand he looks like a moderate lea...

Debt: A Time of Critical Decisions

Noviembre 2019

While Alberto Fernández won the Presidential election, as expected, the final results brought some relief to the Macri camp, especially because he lost by a much smaller margin than in the primaries (only eight percentage points compared with 17 points in the primaries). In addition, Juntos por el Cambio (Macr...

The countdown for economic decisions has begun

Octubre 2019

The announcement of debt reprofilement and FX controls last month were effective to moderate the fall in international reserves and contain the depreciation of the official exchange rate, which was only 3.7% since then. The CB added new FX controls on October and the Peso stands nowadays near 58.30. For individuals ...

Dollars and Debt: what's next?

Septiembre 2019

The primaries have clearly marked a turning point for financial stability and economic performance: investors were in shock and confidence all but disappeared, in a matter of hours Argentine credit spreads went through the roof, all financing dried up and the result was that Argentina could not rollover its deb...

Surprising election results. What comes next?

Agosto 2019

The landslide victory of the Fernandez ticket in the primaries has been an unexpected result that shook financial markets and introduced a high level of uncertainty regarding the evolution of economic and financial variables during the transition to December 10th, when the inauguration of the new president takes pla...

The exchange rate and the countdown to primaries

Julio 2019

A trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur was finally announced in late June. It should drive the creation of trade, the access to cheaper inputs, the specialization to a higher scale of certain sectors and a greater integration of local firms to global value chains. The agreement promotes a greater regul...

Surprise VPs: what does it mean for the economy?

Junio 2019

May was a positive month regarding the FX front after the CB announced on April 29th that is allowed to intervene in the FX market discretionally and the Peso reacted positively: it fluctuated around 45.00 ARS/USD since then, even when other emerging-market currencies were depreciating. So far, the monetary entity d...

Informes Mensuales

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

When It Rains, It Pours: the Economy in Times of Coronavirus

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

The Debt Negotiations Are Heating Up

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

Public Debt: Waiting for the government to put first gear

Economic perspectives for the summertime

Economic perspectives for the summertime

Debt: A Time of Critical Decisions

Debt: A Time of Critical Decisions

The countdown for economic decisions has begun

The countdown for economic decisions has begun

Dollars and Debt: what's next?

Dollars and Debt: what's next?

Surprising election results. What comes next?

Surprising election results. What comes next?

The exchange rate and the countdown to primaries

The exchange rate and the countdown to primaries

Surprise VPs: what does it mean for the economy?

Surprise VPs: what does it mean for the economy?

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